Longrifle wrote: Couple of points; No infantryman worth his salt ever surrendered to an airplane. No amount of bombing or shelling will ever defeat determined infantry. The British fired 1,000 rounds an acre during the Somme offensive, and when the barrage lifted, the German crawled out of their holes and cut down nearly 60,000 of the British soldiers advancing against them. We have tried to bomb many countries into submission; it has rarely worked as planned. German factories in WWII went underground and production was halted only by lack of raw material, not by Allied bombing. The point, ground troops take ground. An invasion would have been necessary without atomic weapons.
But at what cost? Casualty estimates aren't worth the paper they're printed on, unless your unit is short of TP, then they have some value. I laughed in both gulf wars, from the turret, at the ridiculous casualty estimates. Look at D-Day casualty expectations and realities. Antietam remains the "bloodiest day" and only because both sides were American. The style of fighting would have been vastly different than the rest of the Pacific Theater, given the room for maneuver. The Army would have been able to employ heavy armor and coordinated air and artillery assets. As a German Colonel observed, "I never fought the Americans. I saw enough of their artillery and aircraft, but never their infantry". Given room and ammo, US doctrine is to avoid casualties through firepower (and still is). Now compare casualties on Okinawa at 50,000 (12,000 killed) for 82 days, or 600 a day killed and wounded. I would drop that substantially as the battle environment was much different. The Pacific Island battles gave the defender advantages, limited landing sites presited by Japanese artillery and machine guns, interior lines, good communication, sitting on their supplies. In a campaign for the Japanese homeland the attacker can pick the landing site and ground, bypass resistance, and employ the heavy armor over a wide network of roads and flatlands around Tokyo. Rather than a costly extermination mission like Iwo Jima or Tarawa or Okinawa, the goal of maneuver warfare then becomes destroy the seat of the enemy's government, his production, his supply. Nothing turns determined infantry into disorganized rabble faster than armor moving inexorably over their positions, and no civilian militia in the world will stand that advance, rather they melt away like butter in a hot pan, with the few die-hards becoming fodder for the coax.
There are a couple good "what-if?" books on the subject, using revisionist history.
Rifle, i'd like to point out that what you say doesn't always hold true. Granted, its the exception, but still worthy of mention. Im referring to a battle fought in the pacific in ww2. I dont recall exactly which battle it was, however, the marines were ordered to take a mountain. So the marines called in air support to soften up the target. Waves of hellcats and corsairs made repeated bombing and strafing runs and the ground troops took the mountain without firing a single shot. With regards to the use of air power at the end of the war, while i do highlight that as a major factor of what could have happened, i don't dismiss that a ground invasion would have been necessary, nor do i dismiss how violently bloody it would have been. That being said i still don't think it would have come to that even if we hadn't nuked them. In the course of my research, I've come to believe that hirohito would have surrendered to spare his people and their culture, rather than make a futile and bloody last stand given the odds that were stacked against him. Unlike hitler, hirohito wasn't crazy. Power hungry perhaps, but not crazy. Unlike hitler, hirohito didnt order things like the bataan death march, that behavior was decided by the soldiers and generals in the field, and were never official policy. Im getting slightly off topic here, but my point is that a better way was available at the end and truman could've taken that way but chose not to bc allowing the war to continue offered him the time to produce nukes and see what their damage really was. Thats just my opinion, and we may never really know, but everything I've studied about it seems to support my theory.